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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still